Mexico’s coffee production is forecast to rise 1% to 4.14 million 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, driven by expanded robusta production, improved farm management and continued investment after two years of strong prices, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production Growth
The 2026/27 production forecast totals 4.135 million 60-kilogram bags, including 3.575 million bags of arabica and 560,000 bags of robusta. That would put total production above the 4.08 million bags estimated for 2025/26 and the 3.93 million bags estimated for 2024/25.
FAS said Mexico’s modest production increase is being driven partly by robusta, which is gaining ground because of its disease resistance, suitability for lower-altitude climates and demand from large soluble coffee processors.
Chiapas, Veracruz and Puebla account for more than 80% of Mexico’s coffee production. Chiapas is forecast to remain the top producing state by volume, while Puebla is expected to post the highest yields, supported by favorable soils, infrastructure near major cities and investment in coffee leaf rust-resistant plants.
Prices Support Farm Investment
Coffee prices have fallen from 2025 peaks but remain well above historical levels. The report cited International Coffee Organization data showing arabica prices averaged $3.31 per pound in March 2026, about 40% above the 10-year average.
That has allowed some producers to reinvest in farm management, increase plant density, apply more inputs and improve quality control. FAS said the continued adoption of coffee leaf rust-resistant arabica varieties is expected to strengthen production without expanding planted area.
Consumption Rises with Growing Cafe Culture
Domestic consumption is forecast to rise to 3.17 million bags in 2026/27, including 1.35 million bags of roasted coffee and 1.82 million bags of soluble coffee. Soluble coffee remains the dominant format, representing approximately 57% of consumption.
FAS said growth is being supported by retail coffee shops, ready-to-drink coffee, premium coffee trends and online access to specialty coffee brands. The report also cited Starbucks’ plan to reach 1,000 stores in Mexico in 2026.
Trade and Policy
Coffee exports are forecast to fall about 1% year over year to 3.41 million 60-kilogram bags in 2026/27, as production gains are expected to be partly absorbed by domestic consumption. The United States remains the primary destination for Mexican coffee in all forms.
Imports are forecast to fall 4% to 2.43 million bags as higher local robusta production reduces demand for imported green coffee.
The Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development, known as SADER, continues to run coffee-specific producer support programs. Its Production for Wellbeing program provided $388 per producer per year to 181,364 coffee producers in 2026, covering 216,306 hectares.
The report also cited Café Bienestar, a program run by Mexico’s Secretariat of Wellbeing that buys coffee from producers in Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz and Guerrero for sale through government-backed Bienestar stores. The program is estimated to represent 3-4% of the country’s soluble coffee market.
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