Global politics are more protectionist and fragmented than ever – and the international trade industry is under immense pressure because of it. On 2 April 2025, in a move which he claimed would boost domestic manufacturing and national job security, US President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on all goods imported into the country. This included new levies between 10% and 104% on imports from the majority of the world’s top 20 coffee-producing countries.
In a swift and almost predictable turnaround, Trump froze worldwide tariffs at 10% for 90 days on 9 April – except on China, which now faces a 125% levy.
Even with reduced universal tariffs, the impact of this on the US and beyond is significant. Outside of Hawaii and Puerto Rico (and California, but on a much smaller scale), the US relies on green coffee imports to support its coffee industry, which adds over US $343 billion to its economy every year. Put simply, the US can’t meet its own demand for coffee without relying on international trade partners.
US roasters and importers, who are already grappling with sustained high coffee prices, now face even bigger challenges. As tariffs come into effect, whether at the reduced or full rate, the costs will need to be passed on to US consumers – and their consumption behaviour will shift massively to cope with a surge in retail prices.
I spoke to William “Bill” Murray, the president and CEO of the National Coffee Association, Jennifer Roberts, the managing director of Atlas Coffee Importers, and Florian Schaffner, the Chief Financial Officer and Head of Data at Algrano, to find out more.
You may also like our article on how roasters are managing cash flow.
Why has the US government imposed universal tariffs?
According to the BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator, global trade protectionism has been at its highest level since 2018, primarily driven by Donald Trump’s US presidency. As part of his plan to boost US manufacturing and increase employment, Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff (taxes charged on goods bought from other countries) on all imports to the US. This includes prominent coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Colombia.
Trump initially threatened Colombia with 25% tariffs in January 2025 after President Gustavo Petro refused to accept two US military planes carrying deported and allegedly undocumented migrants. Trump’s tariff warning, which threatened the US-Colombian coffee trade worth around US $2 billion, also caused the C price to surge.
More recently, higher tariffs were introduced against 60 other countries – again, including major coffee producers. Vietnamese imports were to be taxed at 46%, Indonesian goods at 32%, and Indian imported goods at 26%. Trump claims these “reciprocal” levies are equivalent to those that foreign governments impose on US-made goods, although several economists and media outlets have disputed this.
These higher rates, however, have since been paused for 90 days, with a blanket 10% tariff to apply in the meantime.
Chinese imports, which include coffee, were initially due to face 54% tariffs (34% on top of the 20% rate already in place). After the Chinese government refused to scrap its own retaliatory tariffs of 34% on the US, Trump then increased the rates to 104%. In response, China raised its tax on US imports to 84%, signalling a trade war between the two countries.
Despite Trump’s claims that levies will boost US manufacturing and employment, economists warn that the move could harm the global economy and push up prices for US and international consumers. Since the “Liberation Day” tariffs, multiple stock markets have fallen, and JPMorgan increased its odds of a US and global recession to 60%, projecting that inflation will reach 4.4% by the end of 2025.
How is the coffee industry implicated?
For decades, coffee has entered the US tariff-free. Outside of Hawaii, which produces less than one-tenth of the world’s coffee, Puerto Rico, and California (on a very small scale), the US can’t grow its own coffee.
The country is one of the biggest coffee-consuming markets in the world, underscoring its dependence on international trade. According to the National Coffee Association’s Spring 2024 National Coffee Data Trends report, 67% of American adults have had coffee in the past day. This is more than any other beverage, including tap or bottled water.
Moreover, coffee imports play a huge role in the US economy, which makes tariffs an even more costly and confusing choice.
“Every dollar of coffee-related imports generates US $43 in value for the American economy, and coffee supports 2.2 million US jobs, all while being America’s favourite beverage,” says William “Bill” Murray, the president and CEO of the National Coffee Association. The association previously requested that coffee be exempted from tariffs, citing that there is no domestic alternative.
“Since coffee beans cannot be grown in most of the United States, trade policies should take into account the essential role of coffee trade in Americans’ daily lives and the US economy, to ensure that Americans don’t face even higher coffee prices amid the current cost of living crisis,” Bill adds.
The Tax Foundation estimates that the average American household will pay US $2,100 more per year for goods, including coffee, because of the tariffs. Major coffee brands like JDE Peet’s and Lavazza have already pushed for double-digit retail price hikes in Europe, which has led to backlash from retailers and supermarkets hesitant to pass the costs on to consumers.
With tariffs in place, the US market is likely to follow suit – and coffee companies may struggle to pass on higher costs to consumers, squeezing their margins even further.
How will US roasters and importers be affected by tariffs?
Given his recent U-turn, it’s impossible to predict whether Trump will follow through with the full tariffs after the 90-day period. While initial levies of 46% for countries like Vietnam, for example, would have devastating consequences on the US and Vietnamese coffee industries, the 10% universal tariffs will still have a significant impact.
US green coffee importers and roasters will face bureaucratic hurdles as they grapple with market uncertainty, political instability, and rising import fees.
“The most direct effect of the tariffs is simple: prices are going up. Roasters and importers will see their landed costs increase overnight. This is not only for new contracts but potentially also for coffees already on the water if they are shipped after enforcement begins,” says Florian Schaffner, the Chief Financial Officer and Head of Data at Algrano. “You’ll see videos on social media these days where people expect these tariffs to be paid by the origin country – that’s not the case, as tariffs apply as coffee enters the US, not coffee leaving the origin.
“For small and medium-sized businesses, this isn’t just a line on an invoice. It’s a hit to already tight profit margins, and it adds pressure to either raise prices for customers or absorb the costs internally. In some cases, it may also delay decision-making on new purchases, especially for forward-looking volumes.”
Roasters and importers the world over are already dealing with sustained high green coffee prices that are forcing them to rethink sourcing strategies and manage cash flow more closely. Tariffs add another layer of uncertainty to an already complex situation.
“Our understanding is that any coffee afloat prior to 5 April (10% across the board tariffs) or 9 April (‘reciprocal’ tariffs) will be exempted from the import tax, however, as most importers sell against replacement, we assume that many will be implementing price increases even before they start to kick in on new shipments,” says Jennifer Roberts, the Managing Director at Atlas Coffee Importers, a division of Neumann Gruppe USA, Inc.
“Roasters cannot continue to bear increasing costs without making price adjustments to consumers. While coffee has been relatively recession-proof, we will have to see the full impact of the tariffs on consumer spending and the economy,” she adds. “The short-term macro-conditions have affected many markets across the world, including coffee. In just a few days, the price erosion in the market has mitigated the impact on the tariffs in some cases, but we must be aware of the net outright equation and the implications on overall consumption trends. We are still in a tight supply-demand balance where volatility is expected to remain high.”
How can the coffee industry prepare for tariffs?
As tariffs are assessed at the border and importers pay the fees before the goods are released, US roasters and importers are expected to pay 10% to 35% more for green coffee. On top of high market prices, this poses a challenging situation for coffee businesses that are also dealing with rising costs across the board.
“We’re adapting in real time to support roasters and producers. This includes updating our platform to show tariff-inclusive prices on US-bound orders so buyers always see the true landed cost,” Florian says. “We’re assisting with contract reviews and shipment planning to avoid surprises mid-shipment or post-clearance and offering tailored guidance for both new and existing relationships, especially where origin-based tariffs may be a deciding factor.
“Roasters should review existing contracts to understand exposure to the new tariffs and plan purchases with updated pricing visibility, factoring in both base and country-specific rates,” he adds. “Maintain strong communication with producers, especially on timing and expectations, and use sourcing tools with transparent pricing to avoid hidden costs.”
Supply chain and specific origin disruptions are also to be expected, impacting green coffee sourcing strategies and roastery operations.
“We are encouraging collective action: everyone should let their representatives know how painful these tariffs will be to their businesses and support trade organisations like the NCA lobbying for exempting coffee from the import taxes,” Jennifer tells me. “We hope the fact that this is a consumer good that can’t be produced at scale in the US will be a mitigating factor – certainly, the news media has put a lot of emphasis on the price of coffee.
“Raise your prices now and lock in what you need, especially as the market is retreating. Because of high coffee prices and interest rates, importers are already likely to be carrying low-level stocks, and tariffs will only further deincentivise them from bringing in unsold coffee,” she adds. “Having expensive coffee in your position is better than having none.”
How could global coffee trade change?
The US is a major destination for green coffee exports, but new tariffs could see global coffee trade dynamics shift as producers and exporters seek more strategic options.
The EU, which has been actively negotiating trade agreements with Latin America and Africa, could become a more attractive destination for coffee exporters seeking stability – but the upcoming deforestation regulations could pose additional compliance challenges.
China’s thriving coffee sector is another alternative, with imports of coffee, tea, and spices increasing over 32% year-on-year. The Gulf Cooperation Council market, meanwhile, is worth US $6.84 billion – posing another lucrative opportunity for producers and exporters.
“If tariffs remain in place or increase further, we may see more permanent shifts in sourcing behaviour. Roasters might begin exploring alternative origins based on tariff status – it makes a big difference whether you’re charged a tariff of 10% or 46%,” Florian says. “Producers, especially those in tariff-affected countries, could find it harder to access the US market, despite long-standing relationships.”
Ultimately, exporters and producers may rethink their dependence on the US market if tariffs persist or increase again.
“It’s hard to figure out how this will play out on a global scale – coffee for US roasters and consumers is becoming more expensive, and you may see switches in origin countries, but all other countries not affected by these tariffs will also respond to these moves, potentially offsetting some of these shifts.”
At this point, it’s impossible to predict what will happen with US tariffs and how they will affect the coffee industry. While the Trump administration argues that “reciprocal” tariffs will protect the American manufacturing industry, they will only inflate costs and disrupt well-established supply chains in the coffee sector.
In the coming weeks, or even days, US roasters and importers will need to stay well-informed to navigate what is likely to be a turbulent period for the industry.
Enjoyed this? Then read our article on why roasters have to compete on more than just price.
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