The “waves” of coffee are used to describe the major changes in the industry over time, each one representing a shift in coffee culture and consumer behaviour. First popularised by Trish Rothgeb in the early 2000s, the term helps delineate how market trends have evolved over the last few centuries.
The first, second, and third waves of coffee are distinct and widely agreed upon, showcasing how coffee transformed from a commodity to a premium product valued for its quality and craft. However, as the industry transcends into the fourth and fifth waves, with some confusion about what exactly defines these eras, the lines become increasingly blurred.
Some claim the fourth wave focuses on science, while others point to its emphasis on scalability. The elusive fifth wave of coffee adds to the confusion, with some believing we have yet to enter this era.
It’s then important to ask: are the waves of coffee becoming an outdated or redundant concept? Or do they still serve a critical purpose in helping shape the future of specialty coffee?
I spoke with Jenna Gotthelf, National Education Manager at Counter Culture Coffee, Andrea B. Pacas, Head of Marketing at Cropster, and Cosimo Libardo, Head of Sales & Marketing at Ceado, to find out.
You may also like our article on how specialty coffee is evolving outside of more mature markets.
Unpacking the different waves of coffee
There is industry-wide consensus about the first, second, and third waves of coffee, helping establish a solid understanding of how coffee became one of the most popular beverages in the world.
The first wave, typically dated from the 1700s to the early 20th century, is hallmarked by the global mass consumption of coffee. Built on colonial trade models, coffee was shipped to Europe, where growing interest led to the establishment of coffeehouses in major cities. These places became epicentres of intellectual and stimulating conversation, establishing a thriving coffee-drinking culture.
From the mid-1900s onwards, coffee became a household staple, including in the US, marking what we refer to as the second wave of coffee. During this time, prominent chains like Peet’s Coffee and Starbucks introduced the concept of “freshness” (i.e. consuming coffee closer to its roast date) to customers, reshaping perceptions of quality and flavour. Espresso consumption boomed in markets beyond Italy, and the ambience and atmosphere of coffee shops became a more prominent part of the drinking experience.
The third wave of coffee is arguably the most influential and well-defined. Coined by Trish Rothgeb as “just as much a reply to bad coffee as it is a movement toward good coffee” in a 2002 Roasters Guild article, this era signals a shift towards the quality and craft of coffee.
Industry professionals emphasised the influence of origin, processing, variety, and altitude on flavour, pushing for a higher culinary appreciation of coffee. Transparency and traceability took centre stage as consumers demanded to know more about the “story” behind their beans.
Baristas were key to supporting this shift in consumer behaviour, offering knowledge and insight into the wider supply chain. Roasting and brewing skills became more respected, encouraging consumers to understand the expertise and efforts invested in the supply chain.
Can we define the fourth and fifth waves?
Third wave coffee culture has since transitioned into specialty coffee. First defined by Erna Knutsen in the early 1970s (effectively predating the third wave) to describe more unique and higher-quality coffees grown in microclimates, specialty coffee also includes more holistic characterising factors, such as traceability and sustainability.
Over the last two decades, the industry has continued to mature and evolve, reshifting its hands-on approach towards automation and consistency. Some believe these changes reflect a more scientific approach to coffee preparation, signalled by no-bypass brewers, frozen coffee menus, and a deeper understanding of water chemistry.
But alongside a focus on science and sophistication, specialty coffee has strived for accessibility and inclusivity: two opposing concepts that can create confusion. This then raises the question of whether the fourth wave of coffee is more about scalability, helping democratise specialty coffee consumption in less mature markets and embracing more commercial marketing strategies.
Simultaneously, this bleeds into the fifth wave of coffee, potentially exacerbating confusion. Defined by Allegra World Coffee Portal as the “business” of coffee, this era is marked by customer-centricity, the pursuit of excellence, and a commercial focus.
“Science and business have always been a part of coffee,” says Jenna Gotthelf, the National Education Manager at pioneering roaster Counter Culture Coffee. “There are no concrete definitions for the fourth or fifth waves of coffee, but they are great conversation feeders. Many people have something to say about their definitions.”
Industry division about how we define these waves is persistent, questioning whether the “science” and “business” of coffee are their own distinct eras or extensions of the third wave.
“In the business wave, I see the evolution of all the previous waves merge into one,” says Andrea B. Pacas, the Head of Marketing at roasting and café software company Cropster and a sixth-generation coffee producer. “The business aspect of coffee can’t be restricted to just looking at revenue because many factors contribute to this, like branding, customer experience, pricing, regulations, workflow, cost management, waste management, human resources, and more.”
Do these concepts still serve a purpose for the industry?
Each wave of coffee has contributed significantly to the evolution of the industry. Without even one of them, the coffee experience wouldn’t have developed into what it is today.
But as the market matures, bringing about shifts in consumer demand, the lines between each distinct era become increasingly blurred. As businesses seek to scale, the growing commercialisation of the market signals a transition away from the craft and science of coffee; however, these factors still remain integral to the values of the industry.
“Waves seem to describe a sequence (or consequence) of events, but today’s transformation happens multi-dimensionally, not only as a function of time or an exclusive result of actors operating in the coffee sector,” says Cosimo Libardo, the Head of Sales & Marketing at grinder and equipment manufacturer Ceado. “Therefore, I believe we should abandon the term ‘waves’; it doesn’t capture the contrast generated by external factors that interact at many levels and are linked to many different moments in the history of the coffee industry.”
Another important factor to consider is that specialty coffee markets in different regions are maturing at different rates. While the North American, Western Europe, Scandinavian, East Asian, and Australian are well established, the Indian, Eastern European, and Middle Eastern markets are still developing as specialty coffee-consuming countries.
This makes it increasingly difficult to generalise the global coffee industry and underscores how the previous waves can seemingly converge.
“We have to consider that some markets are more mature than others, meaning there is a higher dependency on business strategy to define which elements of which wave are a point of focus instead of just following wherever the market is going,” Andrea says.
As emerging markets evolve, they’re likely to follow a similar trajectory to mature ones, blending science, precision, scalability, and accessibility.
“It’s easier to see big changes in developing markets because the comparison is more dramatic. If something doesn’t exist at all and then it starts to become visible, it is hard to miss. The changes are more gradual over time,” Jenna tells me.
Will we keep seeing new waves of coffee?
However you define them, the fourth and fifth waves of coffee, as with the three that came before them, are about the transformation of the wider industry. But looking ahead, there’s value in breaking down the boundaries between each era to understand how they are interlinked.
“The different coffee waves have supported the industry, which always strives for growth. But along the way, we may have become too strict with them, which has possibly created some monotony in the industry,” Andrea says. “Now, I’m excited to see how we can innovate and improve using everything we have learnt over the years.
“It’s time to stop looking at the waves and start looking at the entire ocean,” she adds. “For instance, a combination of elements of the first and fourth waves might lead to new business models. A mix of the third wave and fifth wave might give way to new coffee experiences as unique value propositions.”
Still, it’s important to recognise that the defining characteristics of each era can be a useful tool for coffee businesses, especially in less mature markets.
“If it’s helpful for a business to find its identity through a signifier like a wave, then we shouldn’t stop them from doing it,” Jenna says. “Specialty coffee is an ocean; there is limitless depth and potential to where we can go. Regardless of the focus being quality, technology, or something else, there is only one way to survive, and that is through sustainability.
“Sustainability is a multifaceted concept. If we can’t work together to build systems that lend to the continued survival of specialty coffee, it will be a wave goodbye,” she adds.
The customer is always right
As reiterated by Jenna, all supply chain actors are pertinent to the industry’s evolution. Consumer demand, however, is often the driver behind key changes. Customers need to be willing to buy into the movement at scale; otherwise, we will struggle to define new eras.
“Consumer choice will polarise around two main concepts,” Cosimo says. “Flavour, as part of an emotional experience, will still relate to specialty coffee. Caffeine associated with convenience and price will become more important, leading to more diverse RTD and coffee substitute offerings.”
Definitions of the sixth wave of coffee, a “nexus of collaboration and culture” with other industries, are already emerging, which signals that the concept still resonates with the coffee industry. Conversely, conversations about how we can transcend and even combine the different waves persist. Ultimately, it’s a matter of personal opinion.
“As long as specialty coffee exists, we will see changes and developments in the future,” Andrea concludes. “If it feels good to call these progressions a wave, then people should feel empowered. Someone always has a new idea that will push the envelope and change the game.”
Enjoyed this? Then read our article on what we can expect from specialty coffee in 2025.
Photo credits: Cropster, Counter Culture
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