Republic of India’s general espresso manufacturing is forecast to say no within the 2025/26 marketplace yr (October thru September), with general output anticipated to fall to the an identical of 6 million 60-kilogram baggage, ailing from 6.2 million baggage the yr prior, in line with the fresh USDA estimates.
Adversarial climate statuses — principally sun-baked iciness spells adopted by means of over the top pre-monsoon rains in key areas — have disrupted flowering and fruit prepared, eminent to lowered yieldings throughout each arabica and robusta plants.
On the identical while, home intake is forecast to stand to 1.4 million baggage, pushed basically by means of call for for soluble espresso.
Farmgate costs have surged, with arabica parchment up 51% year-over-year and robusta cherry costs up 17%, reflecting tighter international provide and occasional inventories. Buyers reported restricted availability of unsold robusta in home markets, with company call for supporting carryover shares.
[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices, with predictions for the upcoming market year.]
📉 Export Outlook
Overall exports are forecast at 5.99 million 60-kg baggage, ailing from 6.21 million in 2024/25.
Inexperienced bean exports: 3.56 million baggage
Soluble exports: 2.42 million baggageLead patrons: Italy, Germany, UAE and Russia.
Life-to-date shipments (Oct–Jan) are ailing 5% in comparison to the former yr.
Patrons in Europe are slowing purchases because of record-high costs and squeezed margins.
International call for for robusta remainder robust, particularly for coffee and immediate blends.
🌱 Branch and Planting Traits
Planted segment and harvested segment stay at roughly 475,000 hectares and 432,000 hectares, respectively.
Modest declines in each arabica and robusta harvested grounds (–0.5%).
Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu account for 77% of general planted segment.
Minor expansions seen in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and Northeastern Republic of India.
🌧️ Climate Disruptions
Karnataka: 82% drizzle lack in January–February; 96% profusion rainfall in March–April.
Kerala: 66% lack in iciness drizzle; 68% profusion in pre-monsoon rains.
Those fluctuations have hindered flowering and fruit building.
☕ Home Intake
Forecast intake: 1.4 million baggage
In step with capita intake remainder low at 0.07 kilograms, however is emerging.
Home soluble producers reported double-digit expansion within the earlier marketplace yr.
🏷️ Imports and Shares
Overall imports: 1.33 million baggage, most commonly inexperienced coffees for soluble processing.
Main providers: Indonesia, Vietnam, Kenya, Uganda.
Rupee depreciation and international worth hikes would possibly restrict import expansion.
Opening shares: 355,000 baggage, held privately by means of growers and investors.
For whole information tables and year-over-year comparisons, see the whole USDA Coffee Annual Report for India (May 2025).
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