Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week.
Editor’s note
The coffee market continues to be in a perfect price storm. After reaching an all-time high of US $4.41/lb last week, arabica futures briefly dipped below the $4.20 mark before rising back to over $4.30 within a matter of days. Consistent fluctuations are to be expected, but prices are unlikely to drop below $4/lb for the foreseeable future.
According to a recent Reuters poll, market analysts anticipate arabica futures will fall by as much as 30% by the end of 2025. Citing a decline in global demand and a better-than-expected 2025/26 harvest in Brazil, poll respondents claimed prices could hit below $3/lb towards the end of the year.
Others, however, remain sceptical. Discourse about the “new normal” for arabica futures continues. Many exporters and large roasters say they may never fall below the $4 mark again, pointing to a worsening climate crisis as the primary driver of supply shortages.
Questions about how much consumers are willing to pay for coffee also persist. The most recent Consumer Price Index report showed a 2.5% increase in retail prices for roasted coffee in January over the previous year. Instant coffee prices, meanwhile, jumped by 7.1% in the same period – and these figures are only expected to increase over the next few months.
The coffee industry is resilient and has weathered similar storms, most recently the pandemic. Persistent market volatility and rising retail prices present similar challenges and opportunities that will reshape the global coffee sector, both in the short and long term.
Top stories of the week
- Mon, 17 Feb – Market analysts predict arabica futures to fall 30% by late 2025. A Reuters poll indicates a decline in prices by the end of the year, driven by reduced demand and a projected recovery in Brazilian production. Despite a smaller 2025/26 crop, Brazil’s output is expected to rebound in 2026/27, while Vietnam’s production is set to increase.
- Mon, 17 Feb – Starbucks aims to open 500 stores in the Middle East by 2030. Following boycotts last year, Starbucks will focus on reviving growth in the MENA region, where it operates 2,000 stores across 13 markets. The announcement came shortly after Starbucks MENA licensee Alshaya Group paused plans to sell a major stake in the business. (Seattle, Washington, US)
- Tue, 18 Feb – Saudi Coffee Company signs seven new MoUs to bolster production and exports. New deals support better access to fertilisers and supply chain improvements, supporting SCC’s goal of expanding Saudi Arabia’s coffee sector. Agreements with Dunkin’ and Costa Coffee franchisees focus on local sourcing, barista training, and product innovation. (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)
- Wed, 19 Feb – Toby’s Estate Sydney named the world’s best coffee shop at CoffeeFest Madrid. Over 4,000 international specialty coffee shops were considered for the competition, which assesses coffee quality, barista experience, customer service, environment and atmosphere, and sustainability practices. The US had the highest number of shops in the list with 14, followed by Australia with nine. Notable winners include Italy’s Faro, placing 26th, Gota Coffee Experts in Austria, Norway’s Tim Wendelboe, and Apartment Coffee in Singapore. (Madrid, Spain)
- Thu, 20 Feb – New study finds electrochemical sensor technology could improve espresso extraction. Italian researchers developed the sensor, which measures moisture, grind size, caffeine levels, and antioxidants in espresso. Compared to traditional optical technology, the electrochemical sensors measure the electrical signals generated during chemical reactions, which the researchers claim improves consistency. (Rome, Italy)
Industry news
- Mon, 17 Feb – Happy Belly Food Group will expand Smile Tiger Coffee to 25 new stores. The Canadian group signed a 25-unit development deal to grow Smile Tiger Coffee Roasters across British Columbia. Following the acquisition of the Ontario roaster in January 2025, the franchise group plans to scale the business, focusing on rapid EBITDA growth and integration within its broader food service portfolio. (Vancouver BC, Canada)
- Tue, 18 Feb – Nestlé banking on coffee brands amid cost pressures. Nestlé’s coffee segment grew mid-single-digit in 2024 despite a 1.8% revenue fall and a 3% profit drop. Key brands drove gains in North America and Europe while rising coffee costs prompted cost-saving and expansion measures. (Vevey, Switzerland)
- Tue, 18 Feb – China’s Cotti Coffee will open branded convenience stores. The chain will launch its convenience store concept after rolling out branded kiosks. Founded by ex-Luckin execs, it aims for 50,000 global outlets by 2025 and has signed over 50 retail partners to expand its network in a competitive market. (Hong Kong, China)
- Wed, 19 Feb – India’s Blue Tokai expands UAE reach with new deals. Blue Tokai Coffee Roasters has secured distribution agreements with Talabat and Noon at World of Coffee Dubai 2025. The move boosts access to its packaged coffee and strengthens its UAE market presence. (Gurugram, India)
- Thu, 20 Feb – Vietnam’s The Coffee House reportedly acquired by Golden Gate Group. DealStreetAsia reports that the restaurant group acquired the struggling coffee chain from Seedcom after it closed over a third of its stores in 2024. The deal could help stabilise the brand while giving Golden Gate a foothold in Vietnam’s competitive coffee market. (Hanoi, Vietnam)
- Thu, 20 Feb – Dutch Bros appoints Gen Z marketing expert to board. The drive-thru coffee chain added e.l.f. Beauty CMO Kory Marchisotto to its board, aiming to strengthen connections with younger consumers. Known for disruptive marketing in beauty, Marchisotto joins as the chain expands mobile ordering and influencer-led promotions. (Grants Pass, Oregon, US)
- Thu, 20 Feb – Dunkin’ now offers free non-dairy milk. Starting on 5 March, Dunkin’ will remove extra charges for plant milk options, following other major chains. This change, driven by customer feedback, aims to boost beverage customisation. (Canton, Massachusetts, US)
- Fri, 21 Feb – Lucky Hills’ Anne Valdez joins the ACE board of directors. A veteran coffee expert with over 30 years’ experience and a key Cup of Excellence juror, Valdez oversees Lucky Hills Coffee’s direct trade with 80 growers in Southern Minas Gerais. She will develop tools to boost consumer appreciation and support ACE’s mission. (Portland, Oregon, US)
New launch
- Mon, 17 Feb – happy will launch RTD coffee lineup in the US. Founded by Craig Dubitsky and Robert Downey Jr, the brand will expand its RTD lattes and cold brew into over 2,000 Albertsons outlets in 34 US states. The brand partners with NAMI, featuring QR codes for mental health resources, tapping into rising RTD demand. (New York City, New York, US)
- Wed, 19 Feb – PKN launches Zero pecan milk in the US. The new product contains only four ingredients, aligning with consumer demand for health focused non-dairy options and increasing competition in the plant milk market. (Austin, Texas, US)
Milestone
- Tue, 18 Feb – Westrock Coffee donates 400,000 servings to Arkansas Foodbank. The company provided 36 pallets, totalling 8,600 pounds of coffee, to support families facing food insecurity. COO Will Ford highlighted the initiative as part of Westrock’s commitment to community impact. (Little Rock, Arkansas, US)
- Wed, 19 Feb – Lagardère Travel Retail expands its coffee footprint with strong foodservice growth. The company’s food service division includes proprietary brands, such as So! Coffee and 1Minute Café, alongside licensed Costa Coffee, Pret A Manger, and Starbucks stores. Lagardère increased its share of group sales by 2%, now contributing 29% of total revenue. European market strength and new contracts in key locations helped drive expansion. (Paris, France)
- Wed, 19 Feb – Reborn Coffee secures 33 new locations. The specialty coffee chain signed deals for 33 new outlets in key US markets and Prague, supporting its international expansion plans. (Brea, California)
Trade & production
- Tue, 18 Feb – Global Colombian coffee exports surged throughout 2024. Exports hit 12.1 million 60kg bags last year. Shipments to Canada grew by 34.9%, now making up 7.5% of total exports. Major destinations include the US, Germany, and Japan, reinforcing Colombia’s status as a premium supplier and leader in sustainable coffee. (Bogotá, Colombia)
- Wed, 19 Feb – Cuba eyes premium coffee exports. At the recent SIGEP World event, Cuba’s Deputy Minister outlined a shift to quality over quantity amid falling local demand. The BiocubaCafè joint venture with Lavazza and AICEC targets 2,000 tonnes for export, focusing on sustainability and youth retention. (Havana, Cuba)
- Thu, 20 Feb – Research shows that farmers gain income from specialty coffee value chains. A study in Bolivia and Colombia conducted between 2017 and 2020 found that smallholder farmers, especially those roasting and selling nationally, benefit from increased incomes. However, further policy and value-chain enhancements are needed to boost overall livelihoods. (Zurich, Switzerland)
Events
- Thu, 20 Feb – Nordic Coffee Fest 2025 scheduled for 1 & 2 March. Over 4,000 visitors are expected to attend the festival, which features a trade show, lectures, cuppings, the second Nordics Best Roaster competition, and a the first-ever Barista School, with a strong overall focus on sustainability. (Gothenburg, Sweden)
Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:
- Sat, 17 Feb – New parametric solution aids Vietnam’s coffee sector. Willis and Global Parametrics delivered the first payout under a parametric policy triggered by low rainfall during 2024. Satellite data enabled swift payments from a fund backed by the UK FCDO and Germany’s KfW, boosting local resilience. (Hanoi, Vietnam)
- Sun, 16 Feb – Singapore inmates learn coffee skills for future careers. Inmates at Selarang Park and Changi complexes received coffee brewing and hospitality skills training via Republic Polytechnic courses. The training programme boosts job prospects and supports reintegration. (Singapore)
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Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece about how high coffee prices are straining roasters’ and traders’ cash flow.