Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
Key takeaways
- Coffee subscription sales surged 109% in 2020, during the pandemic.
- The subscription model has diversified to include competition and reserve coffees.
- Pricing is a key factor to avoid eroding roasters’ margins.
- Limited supply makes some coffee subscriptions hard to sustain.
When cafés worldwide were forced to shut their doors during the pandemic, coffee subscriptions boomed. Data from the Specialty Coffee Association showed a 109% increase in subscription coffee sales in 2020.
This surge changed many roasters’ business models almost immediately. With the desire to create a café-level experience at home, subscriptions became the most straightforward option for many consumers. Roasters who had previously focused on wholesale or walk-in retail now had a stable revenue stream and access to a much wider customer base.
“We saw an uptick in subscription sign-ups during the pandemic, and our subscription service is still very popular,” says Caspar Steele, green buyer at Atkinsons Coffee Roasters in Lancaster, UK.
Dedicated coffee subscription platforms also emerged to meet the demand at scale. By answering a few questions about how much coffee they drink and their flavour preferences, customers received tailored results, essentially removing the guesswork.
The appeal to both roasters and consumers was clear. By 2023, more than 6.2 million active subscribers across North America and Europe were using monthly coffee subscription services, and more than 1,400 brands globally offered coffee subscriptions, with over 740 operating in the US alone.
Since the pandemic, the explosive growth of coffee subscriptions has settled, and roasters are offering more options than ever before – signalling a maturation of the category.
You may also like our article on why roasters are explaining their price increases.
How coffee subscriptions have diversified
The coffee subscription model that emerged during the pandemic was simple by design. Consumers answered a few questions about preferred flavour notes, roast level, and brewing method, and a different coffee arrived in the post every week or month.
This format introduced subscribers to coffees they would never have found in supermarkets or online on their own. And while this model still exists, the format of coffee subscription services today is much more mature and diverse.
Many dedicated platforms now use data to refine recommendations over time, improving brand loyalty and customer retention. Some services, such as Mistobox in the US, have integrated AI-driven matching tools that the platform says help increase order accuracy.
Beyond algorithmic personalisation, subscriptions also cater to more niche coffee drinkers. Roasters like Passenger Coffee in the US and Sweden’s Standout Coffee offer subscriptions exclusively for reserve and competition lots – premium options largely unavailable just five years prior.
The result is a subscription market that now caters to a far more segmented audience, from the everyday coffee drinker to the dedicated home barista. Interest in co-fermented coffee subscriptions is also growing, signalling further diversification of the category.
The subscription format suits high-end coffees in theory. A monthly or bi-monthly release of a competition coffee or co-fermented lot keeps subscribers engaged, but inconsistent pricing can pose challenges for roasters.
“We have thought about offering a high-end subscription, because we launch a lot of coffees that retail for over £15 per 250g,” Caspar says. “We definitely release enough coffees throughout the year to do a premium subscription as well. But they do range in price a lot, from about £15 to £25 per bag, so pricing it is a bit complicated.”
Predictability is key for roasters & consumers
As the coffee subscription category diversifies, it mirrors broader trends in the specialty coffee industry. Although more roasters are offering competition and reserve lot packages, they only account for a very small fraction of the market.
For many roasters, blends and more cost-effective single origin subscriptions offer greater predictability, helping them forecast demand, manage inventory, and build long-term customer loyalty. “They offer steady revenue, which is very consistent month after month,” Caspar explains.
Predictable recurring revenue is valuable for roasters, particularly as price volatility persists and shipping rates fluctuate. But pricing any coffee subscription isn’t always straightforward.
“The profit margin is a bit less than normal because we price it at the lowest price point that we sell bags for,” Caspar explains. “The coffee is basically charged at £10 for 250g, but subscribers receive coffees that retail for £10 to £15 a bag. We also charge shipping a little under what it usually costs, so we bring it up to £12.35 per 250g, including shipping.”
Some roasters opt for a 5 to 10% discount on recurring order subscriptions, but this requires careful calculation against existing margins. Free shipping, introductory gifts, and below-retail pricing can quickly erode margins.
Larger discounts can also set unrealistic expectations for consumers around how much coffee actually costs, potentially undermining its perceived value.
Exclusive subscriptions pose difficulties
For limited-edition subscriptions specifically, the supply problem is significant. These lots are produced in small quantities at origin, command premium prices, and often lack a reliable supply chain. A subscription built around a rotating series of co-ferments or competition lots requires a sourcing strategy that most roasters can’t provide.
Curated subscriptions require more strategy to be successful, profitable, and scalable, due to the continually changing nature of the offerings. Rotating stock too quickly creates logistical pressure, and sourcing too far in advance risks impeding freshness and quality.
The planning burden is also important to note. A roaster managing an exclusive subscription has to coordinate green bean procurement, roast scheduling, and dispatch logistics in sequence, often months ahead of the delivery date.
Coffee subscriptions have come a long way from the pandemic-era boom that first made them a fixture of many roasters’ business models. The category has matured, the audience has segmented, and the options available to consumers are now far broader.
But maturity brings its own pressures. For roasters, the challenge is no longer whether to offer a subscription, but how to structure one that is financially viable. Competition and co-fermented lot subscriptions point to where the category could go next, but limited supply and complex logistics mean they are suited only to a small number of roasters.
For most, a well-priced, reliably stocked subscription built around consistent coffees remains the more viable option.
Need more leads for your coffee business? Get in touch with PDG Media, our marketing agency, here.
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