Indonesia’s espresso manufacturing for the 2025/26 marketplace yr (April to March) is forecast on the identical of 11.3 million 60-kilogram luggage, up 5% from the prior yr, consistent with the untouched USDA estimates.
The projected building up is pushed through favorable climate and advanced enter virtue, particularly in key robusta-producing provinces in southern Sumatra. Robusta continues to dominate Indonesia’s annual output, accounting for almost 87%.
Exports are projected to extend 7% to 6.5 million luggage because of the higher manufacturing. Alternatively, business with america would possibly abate because of the new 32% tariff imposed through Donald Trump. The tariff is recently on recess, even though it’s recently scheduled to jerk impact in July.
Home intake is forecast to develop marginally to 4.81 million luggage, with shoppers more and more turning to lower-cost choices and ready-to-drink (RTD) espresso as spending rest tight.
[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices.]
📉 Export Outlook
Inexperienced bean exports are forecast at 6.5 million luggage, a 7% arise from the prior yr.
Exporters speeded up shipments to the EU in early 2025, with Belgium and Germany chief, totaling greater than 1.4 million luggage.
Shipments to the U.S. reached 726,000 luggage between March 2024 and February 2025, up 23% year-over-year, however would possibly fall because of price lists.
The EU deforestation-free regulation (EUDR), taking impact on the finish of this yr, may be anticipated to affect time exports. Exporters are making ready due diligence protocols to conform.
Alternative key locations come with Egypt, Malaysia, Republic of India, Japan and alternative ASEAN international locations.
Soluble exports stay solid at 1 million luggage yearly, with out a forecasted exchange in 2025/26.
🌱 Manufacturing and Rising Situations
General manufacturing is forecast at 11.3 million luggage, together with:
Robusta harvest in Sumatra started in April and is anticipated to height between June and July.
Arabica is harvested two times: April–Might and once more from September–October, most commonly in northern Sumatra, Java and Sulawesi.
Sumatra accounts for 70–75% of nationwide manufacturing, with southern provinces chief robusta manufacturing.
Farmers have expanded fertilizer virtue and revitalized left out farms, pushed through more potent costs and credit score get right of entry to via village-level aggregators.
Smallholder farmers govern 98% of the planted compres department in Indonesia, in most cases farming 1–2 hectare plots.
🏷️ Giveover, Inputs and Imports
Robusta surrenders stay under 1 ton in step with hectare and range extensively through patch, ceaselessly trailing arabica surrenders.
Farmers proceed to stand restricted get right of entry to to high-yield seedlings, depending most commonly on conventional planting secure.
Govt and exporter backup for higher cultivars continues to be limited to make a choice subjects.
Inexperienced bean imports are projected at 400,000 luggage for 2025/26, unwell from 557,000 in 2024/25 because of larger native provide.
🏛️ Coverage and Marketplace Situations
Exporters stay involved concerning the re-imposition of the 32% tariff on Indonesian espresso getting into america later July 2025.
Compliance with EUDR is a concern heading into overdue 2025, with exporters beginning traceability and deforestation-free sourcing documentation.
Incorrect primary government-led replanting or growth systems are underway, proscribing near-term expansion in department planted.
For ancient information and up to date business developments, see the total USDA Coffee Annual Report for Indonesia (May 2025).
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