Key takeaways
- Price and political volatility reshaped green coffee trade in 2025.
- Coffee prices are stabilising, but they’re likely to remain above the five-year average.
- Long-term partnerships are essential for navigating market volatility.
- Experienced intermediaries provide essential education, quality control, and regulatory compliance support.
The coffee industry weathered unprecedented turbulence over the past year. Record-breaking prices, sweeping US tariffs, and the impending European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) framework have tested even the most established businesses.
Many roasters had to reconsider long-held assumptions about pricing, supply security, and business planning.
“This wasn’t the first crisis we have experienced, but we were also recovering from Covid,” says Salvador Sans, the owner of Cafés El Magnífico, a specialty coffee roastery in Barcelona, Spain. “The majority of us knew that, as the low stock market prices weren’t sustainable for producers, they would have to rise at some point. And they did rise, very quickly.”
In this challenging environment, partnerships matter more than ever. For roasters navigating these new hurdles, the distinction between transactional suppliers and strategic partners has never been clearer.
This year promises some price relief. The International Coffee Organisation’s January 2026 report shows that the C price has fallen to its lowest levels since August 2025, driven by improved weather in Brazil.
With some stability on the horizon, roasters and producers who invested in meaningful relationships are better positioned to manage the months ahead.
You may also like our article on whether 2026 will offer the coffee industry more relief.
Volatility in 2025 was a learning opportunity for the coffee industry
Smaller coffee roasters, often lacking the hedging capabilities of larger companies, found themselves particularly vulnerable to rapid price swings last year. The US administration’s decision to roll out widespread tariffs – including 50% levies on Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer – in April 2025 only heightened this vulnerability.
Coffee has since been exempted from tariffs, but the lingering effects of political volatility demand strategic partnerships built on trust, transparency, and shared values.
“In 2025, the impact was practical: accepting the real market price and maintaining consistency without cutting corners,” says Luis Ángel Garrido, the co-founder of San Agustín Cafés, a specialty coffee roaster in León, Spain. “There were highs, rapid corrections, and stock tension in Brazil. In this context, the challenge was not to ‘buy cheaper’ but to avoid running out of stock and to avoid lowering quality to maintain margins.”
Long-term relationships emerged as the most effective defence against market instability, offering mutual benefits that extend beyond price negotiations. When supply chains fracture and prices spike, established relationships provide the continuity needed to maintain quality and operations.
Xorxios, Spain’s first importer dedicated exclusively to specialty coffee, with 25 years of market experience, has cultivated relationships with producers and roasters that span decades. Some customers and producer partners have remained with Xorxios since its earliest days, a testament to the enduring value of trust-based collaboration in an industry too often characterised by short-term thinking.
“With Xorxios, I had peace of mind,” Luis says. “Key origins such as Brazil were well covered, information was clear, and I was able to plan without having to improvise every week.”
The role of intermediaries in specialty coffee has undergone significant re-evaluation in recent years. Market conditions in 2025, in particular, demonstrated the critical value of skilled intermediaries. They serve as shock absorbers that manage and distribute risk in ways roasters and producers can’t replicate when purchasing or selling directly from origin.
Value-adding intermediaries should function as strategic partners rather than logistics providers, bridging the gap between producing and majority-consuming countries with knowledge of currency fluctuations, regulatory changes, and quality variations.
“Market volatility in 2025 created major challenges, as our 2024 production plans didn’t account for severe climate events like droughts, heat waves, and frost, which directly impacted output,” says Reinaldo Olini, a coffee producer at Acauã Estates in Cerrado Mineiro, Brazil.
“Our partnership with Xorxios is nearing a decade. We started working together with small shipments, but as Xorxios’ needs grew, we increased our export volume to match,” Reinaldo adds. “This shared progress has been vital for our development, helping us improve our quality standards and operational efficiency while also giving us a stable horizon for future growth.”
Focus on education and training
In addition to Brazil, Xorxios connects European roasters with producers across more than 20 different origins. The company’s approach also encompasses education and quality assurance, benefiting all parties in the supply chain. Since 2013, Xorxios has operated one of Europe’s leading training centres, currently the third Specialty Coffee Association-certified facility on the continent, positioning education as a fundamental pillar of its value proposition.
Through the Xorxios Aura division, the company offers three specialised courses: two focused on coffee tasting, including Q Grading certification, and one on roasting. This helps customers understand and articulate the value producers deliver, strengthening the entire supply chain by improving knowledge.
“Over the years, we have seen that when we roast and taste samples, we are more aligned,” says Luis. “This synchrony gives you peace of mind. Information isn’t then a sales pitch, but a reliable reference for decision-making.”
Preparing for potential coffee price volatility ahead
Looking ahead, easing global supply concerns and rising exports could provide the coffee industry with greater price relief. Conab recently reported that Brazilian arabica producers expect slightly higher production volumes in 2026 (although conilion growers predict lower output). Vietnam, meanwhile, estimates that 2025/26 harvest volumes will increase by 5-10% compared to the 2024/25 crop.
These figures suggest more stable coffee prices in 2026, but they’re still likely to remain above the average over the last five years. The question is no longer if the market will become volatile again, but rather when. Successfully navigating the next cycle of instability will depend on who has built relationships capable of withstanding it.
In turn, managing market volatility continues to require both strategic thinking and practical support.
Roasters who successfully navigated last year’s challenges prioritised information quality over price hunting, valued consistency over opportunistic purchases, and recognised that sustainable businesses require long-term relationships.
Xorxios works closely with both producers and roasters to understand their specific challenges and develop tailored solutions. This dual perspective allows the company to anticipate problems before they impact either party.
Regulations and logistics
Regulatory compliance represents another area where experienced intermediaries provide critical support. The EUDR and various certification requirements create complex documentation demands that can overwhelm roasters focused on their core operations.
“Having a partner who is on top of this means less uncertainty and less risk of blockages due to documentation,” explains Luis. “In an already volatile market, the last thing you need is for regulations to catch you unprepared.”
The logistics management that intermediaries provide can prove equally valuable. During 2025’s supply chain disruptions, roasters needed immediate access to spot coffees when shipments were delayed and reliable information about arrival times for planned purchases. Without these capabilities, maintaining consistent quality and meeting customer demands becomes nearly impossible.
“When purchasing from a particular source, we asked Xorxios for all the samples and chose the ones we liked best,” says Salvador. “The more samples on the tasting table, the better. In the event of a shipment delay, they have spot coffees available.”
Supporting all actors in the supply chain
Successful partnerships extend beyond operational efficiency. They embody specialty coffee’s core values: interpersonal relationships, transparency, and trust, while simultaneously adapting to changing needs. Training programmes, improved communication tools, and enhanced traceability systems demonstrate how forward-thinking intermediaries can evolve to better serve their partners.
For producers, stable partnerships enable long-term planning that would otherwise prove difficult in volatile markets. “This relationship brings a significant degree of stability to both our income and production decisions,” Reinaldo explains. “The predictable demand and trustworthy partnerships mean we can invest more strategically in our business, knowing there is a reliable export channel for our coffee.”
The practical advice from industry experts centres on fundamental principles. Price matters, but quality and reliability sustain businesses through difficult periods. Purely transactional relationships work adequately when conditions remain stable, but they will often fracture under pressure.
“In our case, some batches from Colombia purchased through Xorxios were sent to the Global Coffee Awards and won silver medals,” Luis shares. “This kind of result doesn’t come from roasting alone: behind it lies important work in selection, quality control, and support at source.”
The lessons of 2025 will resonate throughout the coffee industry for years to come. As climate change introduces new uncertainties, population growth drives demand, and labour shortages challenge production, the relationships underpinning specialty coffee prove more essential than ever.
While technology and innovation play important roles, the foundation remains unchanged: trust, transparency, and mutual commitment to quality create the stability necessary for sustainable success amid volatility.
Enjoyed this? Then read our article on why higher coffee prices don’t always mean higher quality.
Photo credits: Xorxios
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